O-SenseWhat are Idaho’s political demographics? Do Republicans badly outnumber Democrats? Are independents a political force in Idaho? Are liberals an endangered species?
The latest Idaho Politics Weekly statewide poll answers those questions, and some of the information might be a little surprising. Idaho is obviously a Republican state, as measured by election results. Republicans hold the statewide offices and dominate in the Legislature.
But Republicans are actually a minority in Idaho as measured by self-described political affiliation. According to the latest Idaho Politics Weekly survey, conducted by long-time pollster Dan Jones & Associates, some 36 percent of Idaho adults describe themselves as Republicans. Fifteen percent say they are Democrats. And 35 percent describe themselves as independent voters. Another 9 percent affiliate with some other party and 5 percent declined to answer the question.
The poll was conducted Aug. 20-31, using a random sample of 508 adults. It has a possible error margin of plus or minus 4.35%.
So, if Democrats and independents voted together, they could beat the Republicans, right? Yes, theoretically. But it’s not that simple. In reality, a high proportion of independents are also politically conservative, and so vote mostly for Republicans, even though they don’t identify with the Republican Party.
When respondents were asked, “Do you consider yourself politically as liberal or conservative,” 25 percent said they are very conservative and 27 percent, somewhat conservative. That means 52 percent of Idahoans are conservatives. Another 20 percent say they are moderate; only 14 percent say they are somewhat liberal, and only 8 percent very liberal.
So even if a Democrat wins all the liberal and moderate votes, he or she still loses if the conservatives vote Republican.
Idahoans are pretty independent-minded. But with that independence comes a streak of conservatism. Idahoans used to elect Democrats in statewide races. But no longer.
In theory, a moderate, mainstream Democrat should be able to win a high share of independent voters, along with Democrats and maybe a handful of moderate Republicans. Somewhere in there is a winning coalition, but it will take a very smart and capable Democratic candidate, with sufficient resources, to pull it off.
