O-SenseWith the beginning of a new year, now is the time for any prognosticator worth his or her salt to discuss the likelihood of the various candidates winning the 2016 race for U.S. President.
Of course, I can’t pass up the opportunity, but I’m going to add my own twist, namely addressing each candidate’s chances in Idaho, both during the nomination phase and the general election.
So, here we go . . .
Donald Trump. No candidate has attracted more media attention than Trump. But, I will predict outright he will not be the GOP nominee. He is, at his core, a demagogue not a leader. Bashing immigrants, Muslims and Megan Kelly may resonate with those who hate virtually everyone, but I have faith that Republican voters will step up and stop Trump at the ballot box. I think that process has already begun. Cruz will beat him in Iowa and, if Trump loses New Hampshire, I think he will be done. If he were to somehow win the GOP nomination, he will lose to the Hillary Clinton in a landslide, struggling to win much more than 100 out of 538 total electoral votes. I predict he will have faded by the Idaho GOP primary on March 8. If nominated, he is the one candidate who could make Hillary Clinton competitive in Idaho, though he would be the favorite by a nod.
Hillary Clinton. Clinton will be the Democratic nominee but she will be bruised along the way by Bernie Sanders. His enthusiastic supporters will hold her close in key early states like Iowa and New Hampshire, with Clinton losses possible in one or both. But, she will be formidable in November. In the 11 key swing states, she will be competitive in all except perhaps North Carolina. But, when it comes to Idaho, she will struggle. The Democratic caucuses are scheduled for March 22 and Clinton may fall to Sanders here. In November, it will be an uphill fight for her in Idaho but she could win if Trump is somehow nominated.
Ted Cruz. Cruz is emerging nationally. He has money in the bank and has taken the lead in Iowa. His plan is to roll up lots of early wins in the southern states. But he faces some hurdles. He is likely to struggle in New Hampshire and a significant thumping there could let the air out of his southern strategy. But, he is likely to be one of the top three GOP candidates. If nominated, he would likely lose to Clinton because of his immigration stands and hardline social issue positions. In the 11 key swing states he would struggle everywhere except Missouri. My prediction is that he would give Clinton a 300+ electoral vote victory. Cruz will likely be third or fourth in Idaho’s March 8 GOP primary but would prevail in Idaho if nominated in the general election.
Bernie Sanders. On paper, Sanders looks unelectable. He is the only avowed socialist in the U.S. Senate. He is relatively old. But, he has an enthusiastic base and is raising big bucks. He will win some contests and come close in others versus Clinton. In the end, he will fade but he will give the Clinton campaign heartburn. If nominated, he would lose to almost every GOP candidate except for Trump with whom he would be competitive. He has a dedicated base in Idaho. I’ve seen more Sanders’ bumper stickers than those of any other candidate. I predict he will win the majority of Idaho’s Democratic delegates. If nominated, he would lose to any GOP candidate in Idaho.
Marco Rubio. Rubio is the best communicator in the GOP. He is young, energetic and represents a key swing state. Nevertheless, he will find a tough road to the GOP nomination. The key test for him is New Hampshire. He needs to win or come close and then contest Cruz for the early southern states. He may be the GOP nominee in the end because of his strengths, but I suspect it will be drawn-out, down to the wire fight. But, he would be the most competitive Republican candidate in the key swing states bringing Virginia, North Carolina and Florida to the GOP column in November and competitive in the rest. In Idaho, I expect him to perform well in the March 8 Idaho primary if he is competitive nationally at that point. Why? He has the strongest Idaho infrastructure: Sen. Jim Risch, State Controller Brandon Woolf and Melaleuca’s Frank Vandersloot in particular. If on the ballot in November, he will beat Hillary handily in Idaho.
Jeb Bush. Bush isn’t going anywhere. The only question is when he will come to that realization. He is staking much on New Hampshire but I suspect he will place fourth at best. I suspect he will drop out in late February or early March. He will likely not be a factor in the Idaho GOP primary on March 8. If nominated by some miracle, he would run a completive national race with Idaho a safe state for him.
Chris Christie. His aggressive personality has kept him the race and he has an outside chance of holding one of the top two spaces in New Hampshire. If he falls short, he will be leaving the race shortly after. I predict he will be a non-factor in Idaho in the March primary. If nominated, he would run a competitive race against Clinton (and would be favored in Idaho over her).
Ben Carson. Nice guy, but he will not be the next president. Carson will be shut out of a top three placement in either Iowa or New Hampshire and will exit sometime thereafter. He’ll be gone before the Idaho primary. Would lose a general election nationally to Clinton by a substantial margin but would prevail over Hillary in the event of a highly unlikely head-to-head matchup in Idaho.
John Kasich. I worked in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 1990s and knew Kasich a bit. Very likeable. Smart. And, a pretty good governor of a key swing state (Ohio). But his one shot is New Hampshire, where he is competitive. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is in the top four. However, he needs to be first or second to move forward. I expect him to be gone before the Idaho primary. He would be very competitive in a general election nationally and would win in Idaho over Clinton.
Other GOP/Democratic Candidates. Some of these have engaging personalities and interesting backgrounds. But, I don’t see any breaking out enough to be a factor for either party’s nomination. Watch for most to dropout in January or February. None will matter in Idaho.
Steve Taggart is an Idaho Falls attorney specializing in bankruptcy (www.MaynesTaggart.com). He has an extensive background in politics and public policy. He can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .
