Politics

More and more across the nation voters are angry with their members of Congress – sick of little getting done in what seems to be hyper-partisanship leading to political gridlock.

A new Idaho Politics Weekly poll finds Idahoans are no different – as the three congressional incumbents facing re-election next year have clear challenges with their constituencies.

In what is called a “naked re-elect” question – where voters are asked if their congressman or U.S. senator should be re-elected or is it time to give someone new a chance to serve – pollster Dan Jones & Associates finds that neither Sen. Mike Crapo nor Reps. Raul Labrador and Mike Simpson get over 50 percent support among all their voters.

This is not to say the men would lose their 2016 races.

But it does show clear vulnerability if challenged by well-funded, anti-Washington candidates from either political party.

The general goal, says Jones, who has polled in western political contests for over 40 years, is for an incumbent to get over 50 percent in a “naked re-elect” question – where no other candidate is matched against the incumbent.

That bar shows a majority of basic support for the incumbent – which translates into being in good shape for his or her upcoming re-election.

But Crapo, Labrador and Simpson don’t come even close to that 50 percent base number, the new survey finds.

On the other hand, it would be really bad if more than half of your constituents were saying they wanted someone new in your office.

And the three Idaho federal incumbents don’t hit a 50 percent “un-elect” number, either.

However, that negative number is larger than the positive re-elect number for all three – again not a good place to be.

The poll’s findings: Asked if the incumbent should be re-elected next year, or if it is time for someone new, Jones reports:

Crapo (statewide):

-- 32 percent said re-elect the senator.

-- 47 percent said give someone new a chance.

-- 21 percent didn’t know.

Labrador (only Idahoans in his 1^st District):

-- 36 percent said re-elect him.

-- 46 percent want someone new.

-- 17 percent didn’t know.

Simpson (only Idahoans in his 2^nd District):

-- 34 percent said re-elect him.

-- 48 percent want someone new.

-- 18 percent didn’t know.

Idaho is a very Republican state. And all three incumbents are Republicans.

So it follows if rank-and-file members of your own party are behind you, then that is a good sign for your re-election.

Crapo and Labrador have that basic support – at least more Republicans want them re-elected than want someone new in their place.

But Simpson falls short even there.

Jones finds the political breakouts to be:

-- Simpson, 40 percent of Republicans in his district say give someone new a chance to serve; 38 percent say re-elect him.

Among Democrats in Simpson’s district: 59 percent want someone new, 26 percent say re-elect him.

Among political independents, 52 percent want someone new, 32 percent say re-elect him.

-- Crapo, 41 percent of Republicans statewide say re-elect him, 34 percent of Republicans want someone new.

Among Democrats, 71 percent want someone new, 14 percent say re-elect the senator.

Among independents, 48 percent want someone new, 31 percent say re-elect him.

And for Labrador, 53 percent of Republicans in his district say re-elect him, 28 percent want someone new.

Among Labrador’s Democrats, 72 percent want someone new, 6 percent say re-elect him.

And among independents, 33 percent say re-elect him, 50 percent want someone new.

So, for the three men only just over one-third of all their voters say re-elect them in 2016.

Those are not good re-elect numbers, no matter how you cut it.

But, says Jones, the numbers reflect what is being seen for many congressional incumbents across the nation – Republicans and Democrats.

And certainly most U.S. House members and the senators up for re-election next year WILL NOT lose in 2016.

Rather, the result of Jones’ Idaho poll reflects the discontent across America with how Congress is doing its job.

In the GOP presidential race, for example, the three top contenders in the polls currently are Washington, D.C., outsiders: Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina – all three never having served in public office before.

But whether any of those three can win the GOP nomination, and the final election is certainly unknown now.

Crapo, Labrador and Simpson have some work to do at home. But history shows congressional incumbents start from stronger positions than do challengers.

Jones polled statewide on Crapo since all Idahoans vote on him; and within each congressman’s district, since only those voters decide their fate.

Jones polled Sept. 22-30. Crapo, 586 sample, plus or minus 4.05 percent. Labrador, 313 sample, plus or minus 5.54 percent. Simpson, 257 sample, plus or minus 6.11 percent.