Politics

U.S. Rep. Mike Simpson holds a big lead over his Democratic opponent in Idaho’s 2^nd Congressional District, a new Idaho Politics Weekly poll shows.

But his GOP counterpart in the 1^st District, Russ Fulcher, is only 8 percentage points ahead of Democrat Cristina McNeil, finds IPW pollster Dan Jones & Associates.

In fact, while the 1^st District is very Republican, one would think that Fulcher would be doing better than just 35 percent of the vote.

A longtime GOP conservative officeholder, Fulcher won the Republican nomination with 43 percent of the GOP vote in a crowded field of seven candidates.

Some of Jones findings:

• Simpson has 59 percent support in his 2^nd District, which includes Boise.
  
  
• Democrat Aaron Swisher has 23 percent support.
  
  
• 10 percent of 1^st District voters pick someone else.
  
  
• And 9 percent don’t know.

So that race seems about over with nine weeks left of campaigning.

The 1^st District is much more of a contest to replace Rep. Raul Labrador, who ran as a Republican for governor this year but lost in the primary, and so will leave the U.S. House the end of the year.

• Fulcher gets 35 percent of the vote.
  
  
• McNeil has 27 percent.
  
  
• Libertarian W. Scott Howard comes in with 10 percent support.
  
  
• Constitution Party candidate Pro-Life (that is really the candidate’s legal name) has 6 percent.
  
  
• 2 percent mentioned someone else.
  
  
• And 20 percent of voters – or a large one-fifth – said they don’t know who they will vote for Nov. 6.

That is a large “undecided” number so late in the election season.

McNeil, an Hispanic businesswoman, brings some diversity to the race.

And 1^st District women clearly appreciate that.

McNeil gets 34 percent of the female vote compared to Fulcher’s 33 percent – so she is actually ahead of him among women. Twenty-two percent of women “don’t know” who they favor.

However, men favor Fulcher 38-21 percent. And only 17 percent of men are “undecided.”

• Republicans like Fulcher; he gets 65 percent of the GOP vote. But 18 percent of Republicans are still “undecided.”
  
  
• Democrats go for McNeil, 83 percent. And 13 percent of Democrats are “undecided.”

A critical demographic for McNeil are the independent voters, who don’t belong to any political party.

• She gets 27 percent of the independents to Fulcher’s 20 percent.
  
  
• But 26 percent – or a fourth – of independents are still “undecided.”

McNeil gets only 3 percent of the GOP vote. In a heavily Republican district, she likely needs more of that vote – plus the lion’s share of independent voters, to upset Fulcher.

Jones polled 315 adults in the 1^st District from June 22-July 9. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 percent.

In the 2^nd District, Jones polled over the same timeframe 285 adults. That sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.8 percent.