Politics

GOP gubernatorial candidate Brad Little holds a 12-percentage point lead over Democratic challenger Paulette Jordan, a new Idaho Politics Weekly poll shows.

IPW pollster Dan Jones & Associates also finds that lieutenant governor candidate Janice McGeachin, the Republican in the race, leads Democrat Kristin Collum, 45-26 percent, with 24 percent undecided.

And longtime GOP Attorney General Lawrence Wasden is ahead of Democratic challenger Bruce Bistline, 52-25 percent.

The marquee contest is, of course, the governor’s race.

And there are some surprises there, finds Jones:

• Among all voters, Little, the current lieutenant governor, has 43 percent support to Jordan’s 31 percent.
  
  
• Constitution Party candidate Walter Bayes has 3 percent support.
  
  
• Libertarian Bev Boeck comes in at 5 percent support.
  
  
• 5 percent of voters mentioned someone else they like for governor.
  
  
• And 13 percent don’t know.

A 12-percentage-point lead is pretty good. However, Little is still below 50 percent, giving Jordan some hope.

As of now, she would have to take all of the undecided votes and a few more to hope to win – not an easy task.

But with Little being under 50 percent, she does not have to take any votes away from him, at least.

Here is a shocker, however:

• Among women, Jordan is basically in a tie with Little; he gets 39 percent support to her 37 percent, with the poll’s margin of error at 4 percentage points.
  
  
• Among men, Little leads Jordan, 48-24 percent – a real statistical gender difference.

This is yet another example where Idaho women are feeling very differently politically than Idaho men – a polling anomaly that Jones has found in a number of issues since the election of GOP Pres. Donald Trump.

And it’s but one reason Little may not want Trump campaigning for him in the Gem State this year – for many Idaho women don’t like Trump.

Another polling plus for Jordan:

• She takes a large share of the politically independent votes. There she leads Little 38-27 percent, with 20 percent undecided, and the rest going to other candidates.

Idaho is a very red state. And any statewide Democratic candidate would have to take the lion’s share of independent voters.

Jordan isn’t there yet – thus her overall 12-percentage-point shortfall to Little.

Jones finds that Republicans stand with their man, and Democrats with their woman:

• Republicans favor Little, 75-3 percent, with 13 percent undecided.
  
  
• Democrats like Jordan, 86-3 percent, with only 9 percent undecided.

Little at some point may want to criticize Jordan, claiming she is a liberal.

Jones finds:

• Little leads her among those who are “very conservative,” 71-2 percent; and among those who are “somewhat conservative,” 62-12 percent.
  
  
• “Moderates” actually like Jordan over Little, 41-29 percent.
  
  
• Those who said they are “somewhat liberal,” go for her, 74-11 percent; and the “very liberal” Idahoans like her a lot, 86-4 percent.

There is also an interesting religious split in the state:

• Members of the LDS faith support Little, 67-9 percent – the highest majority among any religious group.
  
  
• Catholics actually favor Jordan, 41-40 percent.
  
  
• Protestants like Little, 41-31 percent.
  
  
• Other Christians, including born-again Christians, favor Little, 52-21 percent.
  
  
• Members of other faiths favor Jordan, 51-26 percent.
  
  
• And those who said they have no religion like Jordan, 52-19 percent.

Jones polled 606 adults from June 22-July 9. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percent.