O-SenseIt used to be that the Rocky Mountain States were rock-ribbed Republican in presidential years.
In this tumultuous year, it really varies by state.
Consider Idaho.
The Idaho Politics Weekly/Dan Jones poll done in the first half of July showed Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by a respectable 21 points margin, 44% to 23% with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 5% and Green Party Jill Stein at 3%. Interestingly enough, 14% said they planned to vote for someone besides the four named candidates and 7% said they still didn’t know. But, overall, Trump’s position in Idaho looks pretty good.
Utah is attracting considerable national attention right now. In 2012, Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama in the state by nearly 50 points (73% to 25%). The GOP nominee is not doing so well this year in the state.
“We’re having a tremendous problem in Utah,” Trump acknowledged last Thursday in Orlando before a group of evangelical pastors.
The latest Dan Jones poll, completed August 4, shows Trump at 37% in Utah with Clinton at 25% and Gary Johnson reaching a startling 16% of the vote.
Hillary Clinton is devoting some energy to Utah. Last week she had published a guest editorial in the LDS church-owned Deseret News where she pointed out her efforts to defend religious freedom and blasted Trump’s Muslim ban (comparing it to an 1838 Missouri extermination order directed at Mormons). I still think she has an upward climb there.
But, Clinton has built up a substantial lead in Colorado. The state was very close in 2012 with Obama pulling out a 5-point victory. The latest Real Clear Politics average of polls in Colorado shows Clinton with a 9.3% lead over Trump in a 4-way race. Of note, Clinton has pulled her television ads in the state, an apparent sign of confidence.
Nevada is close this year which is no surprise. In 2012, Obama beat Romney in the state by a relatively close 6%. The Real Clear Politics average this year in a 4-way race is showing a narrow margin of 2.3% in Clinton’s favor. I expect that one to go down to the wire in November.
New Mexico has had surprisingly little polling. The state has been tipping to the Democrats recently. In 2012, Obama beat Romney in the state by 10%. The last survey available is a PPP poll back in May that showed Clinton leading Trump by 8 points.
Arizona should be deeply troubling to the Trump campaign. Arizona has voted for the Republican candidate every year since 1952 except in 1996 when Bill Clinton swamped Bob Dole. But, the latest CBS News/YouGov poll released the first part of August shows Trump clinging to a narrow 2 point lead over Clinton in a 4-way race.
There is no polling out of either Montana or Wyoming but both have a history of generally voting Republican in presidential races (Montana in 1992 did narrowly go to Bill Clinton).
If I were to guess now, I would say Trump is likely to win Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and Utah.
Utah could surprise if Gary Johnson continues to rise in the state and Evan McMullin, the recently announced independent candidate who was born in Provo, Utah, picks up a bit of local support.
I would give Colorado and New Mexico to Clinton.
The battlegrounds look to be Arizona and Nevada. Those states may come down to Hispanic voters. Trump’s struggles with that demographic could be key.
Steve Taggart is an Idaho Falls attorney specializing in bankruptcy (www.MaynesTaggart.com). He has an extensive background in politics and public policy. He can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .
