O-SenseIdaho has become Donald Trump land, a new poll by Idaho Politics Weekly shows.
It’s a place Idaho political observers figured Trump would end up in this very Republican state, even if he finished second here in the GOP primary earlier this year.
Most likely Trump will not need to visit or campaign here to easily beat Democrat Hillary Clinton in November, finds pollster Dan Jones & Associates in a new survey for the Idaho weekly political newsletter.
However, some Idahoans are reluctantly coming over to “The Donald’s” column, with female Idahoans less supportive of the Republican nominee – which he will become after this week’s GOP convention in Cleveland.
Asked by Jones who they plan to vote for in November, “likely” voters break out like this:
- 44 percent said they are for Trump.
- Only 23 percent said Clinton.
- 5 percent said Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson.
- 3 percent said Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
- 14 percent stated that they plan on voting for someone else for president than those four.
- And 7 percent said they still don’t know for whom they will cast their presidential ballot.
Trump’s problems with women voters have been well documented – he has called any number of women terrible names in the past.
Jones finds a statistically significant difference between male and female Idahoans opinions of Trump in the new survey:
- 20 percent of men said they favor Clinton, 25 percent of women do.
- 50 percent of men said they plan to vote for Trump, only 38 percent of women do.
- 12 percent of men said they plan on voting for some other candidate than the four who will be on the ballot, while 17 percent of women said they would be choosing someone else.
- And 6 percent of men said they still don’t know for whom they will vote, while 9 percent of women are undecided.
Of course, Trump still has several months to get more women on his side.
But he picked a man, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, as his running mate, not a woman.
Jones also finds that even though Trump holds a healthy lead over Clinton in the Gem State, Idahoans still don’t pick Trump as a winner nationally.
Asked who they think will ultimately be elected in November, 35 percent say it will be Trump, but another 35 percent say it will be Clinton.
Five percent said someone other than the major party nominees would win and 24 percent don’t know who will be our next president.
So even some who say they are not going to vote for Clinton think she will be victorious, and some of those who like Trump don’t think he’ll win the White House.
Another interesting statistic in the new survey: A quarter of BOTH Republicans and Democrats don’t plan to vote for their party’s nominee – but will support someone else or not vote in the presidential race, Jones finds.
- Among Idaho Republicans, 75 percent said they plan on voting for Trump; 2 percent said they would vote for Clinton; 5 percent said they favor Johnson (who may take a number of normally GOP votes from Trump across the nation); 1 percent said Stein.
Ten percent of Idaho Republicans said they would be voting for someone else, and 6 percent said they are undecided.
Clinton – who is not very popular in Idaho, the state going heavily for Sen. Bernie Sanders in the Democratic Party caucuses this spring – has similar problems within her own party here.
Jones finds that among Idaho Democrats, 76 percent support Clinton; 5 percent said they would switch over and vote for Trump; 4 percent said Johnson; 0 percent said Stein; 9 percent said they would vote for someone else (Sanders?); and 6 percent said they are still undecided.
With a 44-23 percent lead over Clinton in Idaho, Trump doesn’t need to worry about political independents’ votes here.
Still, Jones finds that 24 percent of independents like Clinton, 31 percent say Trump, 18 percent like Johnson (again, showing how the Libertarian may harm Trump among swing voters); 5 percent favor the Green Party’s Stein; 16 percent plan to vote for someone else; and 7 percent don’t know.
Jones polled 601 “likely voters” from July 5-16. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percent.
