All three Idaho GOP congressional officeholders, Sen. Mike Crapo, and Reps. Raul Labrador and Mike Simpson, are well ahead of their Democratic challengers this election year, a new Idaho Politics Weekly poll shows.
The Dan Jones & Associates survey finds that if the November election were today:
- Crapo would get 48 percent of the vote.
- Democratic challenger Jerry Sturgill would get 25 percent of the vote.
- Constitutional Party candidate Ray Writz would get just 7 percent, 9 percent would vote for someone else, and 10 percent didn’t know.
In the 1st Congressional District:
- Raul Labrador would get 54 percent of the vote.
- Democrat James Piotrowski would get 33 percent.
- And 13 percent don’t know.
And in the 2nd U.S. House District of Idaho:
- Mike Simpson would get 54 percent of the vote.
- Democratic challenger Jennifer Martinez would get 36 percent.
- And 10 percent didn’t know.
Idaho is a very Republican state, with GOP officeholders having all the major posts in the state.
Still, Jones finds one fascinating twist: Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders – who is just about to call it quits in his national bid – did well here, various Idaho Politics Weekly and primary votes showed.
He got 78 percent of the vote compared to Hillary Clinton’s 21.2 percent.
Sanders across the nation has done very well among younger voters.
And Jones finds that in the Idaho U.S. Senate race, among voters 18-29 years old, Sturgill actually ties Crapo – 31-31 percent. The rest are undecided or voting for someone else.
The younger voters in the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts favor the Democratic challengers.
It is 48 percent among the youngest set of voters for Piotrowski, just 32 percent for Labrador, with 19 percent undecided.
And it is 48 percent for Martinez and just 36 percent for Simpson in the 2nd District race among 18-29-year-olds, with 16 percent undecided, Jones finds.
Of course, among all the other age groups the three Republicans win big – the reason overall they are doing so well and slamming their Democratic challengers.
Still, what lies ahead for Idaho Democrats as that 18-29 age group grows older?
Will they become staunch Republicans like their elders of today?
Or will there be some kind of opening in Idaho politics for Democrats – old guard or progressives – down the road?
Jones polled 603 adults statewide from May 18 to June 4. The statewide sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.99.
The samples are divided by the two U.S. House districts, with the margin of error going up accordingly.
