O-SenseThe open seat race for the Idaho Supreme Court seat held by Chief Justice Jim Jones yielded several surprises last week.
The first surprise was the first place position of Rupert attorney Robyn Brody at 29.9% of the vote in the four-way race. Brody surprised many observers by raising an astounding $176,491, mostly from the legal profession statewide. She ran radio, sent some direct mail and had a social media presence but I didn’t sense she fully deployed her financial advantage. I’ll be interested to see her 30-day report to gauge how much of the total funds raised were spent on actual voter contact.
The second surprise was the strong second place finish of Sen. Curt McKenzie (R-Nampa) only 2 points beyond Brody with a strong 27.9% of the vote. He took some heat for making the race somewhat partisan by relying on endorsements from GOP lawmakers. It apparently paid off in a low turnout primary election with primarily Republican contests. McKenzie drew the backing of the Idaho Farm Bureau and some business groups but didn’t raise much money, only $16,399 in the campaign finance report filed 7 days before the election. But, he did send some direct mail. I expect he’ll show some last minute cash infusions in his forthcoming financial report.
The third surprise was the relatively weak finish of current Court of Appeals Justice Sergio Gutierrez and Deputy Attorney General Clive Strong. Both garnered only about 21% of the overall vote. I was particularly surprised by the final standing of Strong, who ended up in fourth place. He raised the second largest war chest (nearly $50,000) and on a recent drive to Boise I saw more signage for him than any other Supreme Court candidate.
A closer look at the results in the six largest counties shows some interesting strengths and weaknesses of the candidates that may provide opportunities for both Brody and McKenzie in this November’s general election:
| County | Robyn Brody | Sergio Gutierrez | Curt McKenzie | Clive Strong |
| Ada | 24.2% | 34.0% | 21.8% | 20.1% |
| Bannock | 36.0% | 18.1% | 26.7% | 19.2% |
| Bonneville | 30.7% | 16.7% | 28.9% | 23.7% |
| Canyon | 17.3% | 34.3% | 34.1% | 13.8% |
| Kootenai | 30.6% | 16.1% | 36.0% | 17.3% |
| Twin Falls | 39.6% | 12.2% | 22.2% | 26.0% |
Notice Gutierrez’s considerable strength in Idaho’s two largest counties, Ada and Canyon. He also did relatively well in some of the rural counties in the Treasure Valley. His endorsement could carry considerable weight. I presume both candidates are aggressively courting him right now. Clive Strong’s voters cannot be overlooked either. His endorsement will also be sought.
Brody had the edge in Bannock and Twin Falls counties while McKenzie was much stronger in his home county of Canyon and had an edge in Kootenai. Both should try to reduce the margin in the other’s home territory.
A look at rural counties showed neither candidate with a definitive edge, with McKenzie stronger in the counties around Boise, Brody dominating in the Magic Valley and both battling for Eastern Idaho and Northern Idaho.
Looking ahead to the November election, expect Brody to seek to corral the rest of the legal community and face off against McKenzie’s strength among GOP officials and business groups.
McKenzie needs to step up his fundraising (which is difficult for a supreme court candidate because pitches cannot be made directly by the candidate). Brody will probably attempt to preserve her significant financial advantage.
Both candidates need to pivot to the broader audience a presidential general election will bring to the polls. Can McKenzie capitalize on a GOP-tilting electorate in a year that Donald Trump is on the ballot? Or, will Brody’s less partisan appeal work better?
If the primary results are any indicator, this one will be close.
Steve Taggart is an Idaho Falls attorney specializing in bankruptcy (www.MaynesTaggart.com). He has an extensive background in politics and public policy. He can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .
