O-SenseThe presumed GOP presidential nominee, Donald Trump, would beat the presumed Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, in Idaho, a new Idaho Politics Weekly poll shows.
Both Clinton and Trump moved closer to their party’s respective nominations this past Tuesday when they won big in the New York state primaries – home states for both race leaders.
In a new survey by Dan Jones & Associates, Clinton would get 32 percent of the Idaho vote, Trump 49 percent, with 19 percent undecided.
That is a relatively large undecided vote, and comes because both Clinton and Trump are NOT well liked in Idaho – so those “undecideds” are looking for a place to go in the November general election.
Idaho Democrats held caucuses and Republicans held a primary election, this year, but they were two weeks apart.
On March 8, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz got 45.4 percent of the GOP vote, grabbing 20 delegates. Trump got 28.1 percent of the ballot, for 12 delegates. The other two Republicans on the ballot, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (now out of the race) and Ohio Gov. John Kasich split votes and got no delegates.
In the March 22 Democratic Idaho caucus, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders got 78 percent of the vote and 18 delegates, Clinton got only 21.2 percent of the vote, but still got five delegates.
Idaho also has several “super delegates,” whose votes won’t count until the National Democratic Convention.
So, Jones finds that many Idahoans believe Clinton and Trump will be in the final election (national polls show Americans agree with that prediction), meaning the Republican and Democratic candidates Idahoans like – Cruz and Sanders – won’t be on the final Gem State ballot.
In fact, 60 percent of Idahoans say Clinton will be the Democratic nominee, and 45 percent say Trump will be the Republican nominee, Jones finds.
Who will ultimately win our presidency?
Twenty-nine percent say it will be Clinton, 23 percent say it will be Trump.
Partisanship shows up in the final winner prediction:
-- 35 percent of Idaho Republicans say it will be Trump. The other GOP candidates fall well off, and 26 percent of Republicans don’t know.
-- Idaho Democrats may not have voted for Clinton in their caucuses, but 60 percent of them believe she will win in November.
-- Political independents just don’t know – only 26 percent think Clinton will win, 19 percent say it will be Trump, and 17 percent say it will be Sanders.
A quarter of political independents don’t even have a guess.
If somehow Sanders gets the Democratic nomination – and that is highly unlikely considering the delegate math that is against him now – the Idaho presidential race would actually be close.
Jones finds that Trump would be favored by 45 percent of Idahoans, Sanders by 43 percent – well within the poll’s margin of error.
Just how much is Trump disliked in Idaho?
Jones finds that in a Sanders/Trump match-up, 15 percent of Idaho Republicans would vote for Sanders – the most liberal candidate by far this election season.
Strange, to say the least, in such a red state as Idaho.
If it comes down to a Clinton/Trump final election, 8 percent of Idaho Republicans would vote for Clinton.
But 73 percent of Republicans would still vote for Trump, rather than Clinton.
Idaho political independents would still go for Trump in the final election; 43 percent for Trump to just 33 percent for Clinton, with the rest undecided.
Jones finds a significant lead for Clinton among Democrats, and a large lead among Republicans for Trump, in a final race between the two – not surprising.
Cruz would easily beat Clinton in a final election, 64-26 percent. Cruz would beat Sanders, 54-37 percent.
Kasich would beat Clinton, 63-22 percent, and the Ohio governor would beat Sanders, 56-34 percent.
Jones polled 603 Idahoans from April 8-19. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.99 percent.
