It appears Idaho Democrats have made up their minds – Hillary Clinton is their pick for the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee, a new Idaho Politics Weekly poll shows.
But Idaho Republicans still don’t know who they want to be their party’s presidential nominee.
And so, as a whole state, there is no favorite candidate, a just-completed survey by Dan Jones & Associates finds.
Clinton, who lost out to President Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic presidential race, is favored by 55 percent of Idaho Democrats, the new survey shows.
Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, comes in well behind her among Democrats with 35 percent support. The rest of the Democrats go for other candidates.
Only 6 percent of Idaho Democrats don’t know whom they favor in their party’s presidential race.
So unless Clinton does something to anger Idaho Democrats, she appears to be well on her way winning this state’s national Democratic delegates.
That’s not to say she’ll carry the state. Little chance of that in very Republican Idaho.
But Idaho Republicans don’t know whom they like, Jones finds, as that large field is split up pretty well in the Gem State.
Jones finds that among those who self-identified themselves as belong to the Republican Party:
- Ben Carson leads with 29 percent support.
- Donald Trump has 23 percent.
- Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has 9 percent.
- As does Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Florida, (9 percent).
- Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky, seen as a libertarian – which has some appeal in Idaho – comes in with only 3 percent support. (Rand does get 6 percent support from among Idaho’s political independents.)
And the other candidates in the large GOP field fall off from there.
Seven percent of Idaho Republicans mentioned someone other than the declared GOP candidates.
- And 12 percent of Republicans said they don’t know whom they support now for the GOP nomination.
Jones also asked whom Idahoans believe will ultimately be elected president in 2016 – then threw in all of the candidates in both political parties.
And “don’t know” is the winner.
Yes, 31 percent of Idahoans said they don’t know now who will win next year – which sets up a kind of exciting race, at least as Idahoans see it.
- 24 percent said they believe Clinton will win (those are likely a large slice of Idaho Democrats).
- 16 percent said Trump will win.
- 8 percent said Carson will win.
- And 7 percent said Sanders will win.
- 3 percent said Rubio.
- And the rest of the large field spread out from there.
One may argue political independents may not have a dog in this fight – so their opinions of who will ultimately win may be less biased.
Jones finds that among political independents:
- 24 percent believe Clinton will win.
- 15 percent said Trump.
- 6 percent said Sanders.
- And 4 percent said Rubio.
Thirty-six percent of independents – or just more than one-third – said they don’t even have a guess about who will win the U.S. presidency next November.
Jones polled 595 adults between Oct. 28 and Nov. 4; the survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.02 percent.
It should be noted that the poll was finished Nov. 4 before news broke nationally that Carson shaded the truth when he claimed he had been offered a full-ride scholarship to West Point, the nation’s Army Academy.
Carson, a retired brain surgeon, was the top ROTC high school candidate in his home town, but never applied to the academy, and so was never accepted there; never received any offer of attendance.