The U.S. presidential race is changing slightly in Idaho; a new Idaho Politics Weekly poll shows, but Donald Trump is still the leader among the GOP field, and Sen. Bernie Sanders leads the Democrats.
The election is still a year away, of course.
But the new survey by Dan Jones & Associates finds no one is the clear leader in either party and Idahoans are far from picking one.
The new survey also shows that Democrat Hillary Clinton is really, really disliked in Idaho – maybe not a big surprise, and it’s not critical for her to win this very red state to take the presidency in November 2016.
Clinton comes in third among the Democrats in the new poll – conducted Sept. 22-30.
Jones asked several questions dealing with the presidential contest, including a few head-to-head match-ups.
Here are the major findings:
- Trump has gone from 24 support in an August poll to just 16 percent today, a general decline measured in a number of states across the nation.
- Retired surgeon Ben Carson is up in Idaho, from 11 percent to 15 percent.
- Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is down, from 8 percent to 6 percent.
- Businesswoman Carly Fiorina is up from 2 percent to 9 percent now.
- Sanders is up, from 17 percent to 22 percent among all Idahoans.
- Vice President Joe Biden (who still has not decided whether he’s running or not) is up from 16 to 18 percent.
- And Clinton stays the same, at a relatively small 16 percent before and now.
- She leads among Democrats in most other states and does so in Idaho. Among Idaho Democrats Sanders is at 36 percent support, Biden at 16 percent and Clinton at 38 percent.
- Jeb Bush is in real trouble in Idaho among his party. The new poll shows Bush at only 4 percent among Republicans.
- Trump is at 19 percent among Republicans, Carson leads at 22 percent, Fiorina is at 11 percent and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio comes in at 10 percent.
Democrats will hold their first debate Tuesday night on CNN at 6:30 Mountain Time.
As mentioned above, Idahoans, in general, don’t like Hillary Clinton.
And that is reflected in two head-to-head match-ups Jones asked about.
If the final election were held today, and the candidates were Clinton and Fiorina (an all-woman match-up), Fiorina would get 59 percent of the vote to Clinton’s 25 percent.
If the final election were between Clinton and Trump, Clinton would get 30 percent of the vote to Trump’s 51 percent.
Among those who watched the Sept. 16 GOP presidential debate on TV, 36 percent say Fiorina won, 18 percent said Trump, 10 percent said Rubio, 7 percent said Carson and only 3 percent said, Bush.
Democrats have yet to have a presidential debate.
Finally, should Biden get in the 2016 presidential race?
Half of all Idahoans say yes, he should. Thirty-five percent say he should stay out.
Among Democrats, 68 percent want him in – no doubt looking for an alternative to Clinton and Sanders. Only one-fourth say he should stay out.
Political independents want him in, also, 54 percent to 29 percent.
Idaho Republicans want the vice president to stay out of the race, 43-40 percent.
Jones polled 586 Idahoans from Sept. 22-30; margin of error plus or minus 4.05 percent.
Idaho Politics Weekly will continue measuring the presidential race in the Gem State every few months or so as we move toward the 2016 election.