An Idaho Politics Weekly poll on the approval ratings of the state’s two U.S. House members could show some problems for Rep. Raul Labrador – who is running for governor this year and faces six other GOP candidates in Tuesday’s primary election.
Pollster Dan Jones & Associates finds that while Labrador does well among his fellow GOP voters in his 1st Congressional District, a fifth don’t like him.
And nearly two-thirds of non-partisan, independent voters in his district don’t like him, and they could swing a close governor’s primary election if those independents register as Republicans to vote.
Of note, the following poll numbers and analysis is ONLY of 1st District voters – Labrador’s constituents – and is not among all voters statewide, who will pick the new governor in November.
But the sample is about half the state, and so shows how many voters feel about Labrador – who is giving up his U.S. House seat to run for governor.
Jones finds among Labrador’s 1st District voters:
-- All district voters give Labrador a mediocre approval rating of 44-45 percent.
That means 44 percent approve of the job he’s doing in Congress, 45 percent disapprove.
And 11 percent don’t know.
Normally, you want to be above 50 percent in approval ratings.
-- Among only Republican voters, Labrador has an approval rating of 66-21 percent, with 11 percent don’t know.
-- Democrats don’t like Labrador – who was a member of the conservative Freedom Caucus in the House.
Only 13 percent approve of Labrador, 71 percent disapprove, and 16 percent don’t know.
-- Political independents dislike Labrador, 62-31 percent, with 7 percent don’t know.
The critical numbers for Labrador are here:
-- 21 percent of his own Republican voters in his 1st District don’t like the job Labrador is doing in Congress.
-- And 62 percent – nearly two-thirds – of political independents don’t like Labrador.
Now, the GOP primary election only allows registered Republicans to vote.
But independents can sign up as Republicans before Tuesday.
And a fifth of Labrador’s own party members don’t like him.
In contrast, 2nd District Rep. Mike Simpson, who has no GOP opponent this primary, is coasting along among his own constituents.
-- 53 percent of 2nd District voters approve of the job Simpson is doing in the U.S. House.
-- 31 percent disapprove.
-- And 15 percent don’t know.
-- Republicans like Simpson, 67-14 percent, with 20 percent don’t know.
-- Democrats don’t like him, 67-14 percent, with 10 percent don’t know.
-- And political independents like Simpson, 54-35 percent, with 11 percent don’t know.
So, Simpson is disliked by fewer Republicans than is Labrador.
And political independents like Simpson while they don’t like Labrador.
Idaho is a very Republican state, and whoever wins the GOP gubernatorial nomination next Tuesday will likely be the state’s new governor after the November general election.
Jones polled 318 adults in the 1st Congressional District between Feb. 26 and March 15. That survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 percent.
Jones polled 285 adults in the 2nd Congressional District over the same time frame. That survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percent.