Donald Trump holds a 10-percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton in Idaho, a just-completed Idaho Politics Weekly poll shows.
The survey was wrapped up BEFORE the bombshell Trump sexist tape had time to sink in for Idaho voters.
Undoubtedly that tape and the second presidential debate attacks by Trump (and a bit less by Clinton) would have an affect on the presidential race.
IPW pollster Dan Jones & Associates also finds that even though Idaho is voting for Trump, more Idahoans believe Clinton will ultimately win the presidency than those who say Trump will be victorious.
Here are some of the numbers:
- 40 percent of likely Idaho voters say they favor the Republican nominee.
- 30 percent stated that they would vote for Clinton.
- 10 percent pick Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson.
- 3 percent prefer Green Party’s Jill Stein.
- 11 percent say they will vote for some other candidate.
- And 7 percent don’t know yet whom they will vote for on Nov. 8.
The new survey – without even the damaging Trump sexist tape in play – shows a shift away from Trump and towards Clinton in Idaho over the last month or so.
An early September survey by Jones found Trump with 44 percent support, Clinton with just 23 percent.
So Clinton has gone from a 21-point deficit to 10 points, with still about a month to go in the race.
But Idaho is a steady Republican state – all of its congressional delegation are Republican, as are all statewide elected officials, with the Legislature heavily Republican, too.
So it would be a real upset if Trump doesn’t end up winning the state and its four Electoral College votes.
But even though Idahoans are sticking with Trump now, Jones finds that 44 percent believe Clinton will be our next president.
- 32 percent say it will be Trump.
- 6 percent say it will end up being someone other than one of those two.
- And 18 percent don’t have a guess who will be in the White House next.
As one would expect, the presidential race in Idaho is very partisan:
- Among Republicans, Trump beats Clinton, 73-6 percent.
- Among Democrats, Clinton beats Trump, 85-3 percent.
- And among those who said they are political independents (don’t belong to any political party), Trump beats Clinton, 32-27 percent.
With only a 5-point difference among independents, it could well be that the Trump sexist tape will give Clinton a lead there by Election Day.
Johnson, the former GOP governor of New Mexico, does best among those political independents – 17 percent of the independents pick Johnson; 6 percent of Republicans like him, as do 2 percent of Democrats.
The poll was basically completed before the Salt Lake City-based Deseret News – owned by the Mormon Church – issued an editorial (after the tape came out) that called for Trump to get out of the race.
While the News is not circulated in Idaho anymore, many Mormons may now have heard about that editorial, but not before the latest poll was out of the sampling field.
So, before the Trump tape, Jones finds that 54 percent of Mormons in Idaho support Trump, 6 percent like Clinton, 12 percent favor Johnson, 2 percent like Stein, 18 percent are still undecided, and 7 percent don’t know.
An 18 percent undecided number with just a month to go in a major race is odd for any demographic group, clearly indicating that Idaho Mormons don’t know which way to jump in the presidential race this year.
Finally, while there is a real gender gap between Trump and Clinton nationally, not so much in Idaho.
Jones finds that 29 percent of men favor Clinton – the first female presidential nominee in a major political party in U.S. history – 31 percent of women like Clinton.
While 42 percent of men like Trump, and only 38 percent of women do.
Again, this poll was finished before the Trump sexist tape had time to sink into the electorates’ minds, so those gender numbers, too, could well change.
Jones polled 608 likely voters from Sept. 28 to Oct. 9 (the tape became public the morning of Oct. 7).
The statewide survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.97 percent.