Only two-thirds of Idaho Republicans say they will vote for Donald Trump in November if he becomes the Republican Party’s presidential nominee, a new Idaho Politics Weekly poll finds.
That means one-third of Idaho GOP voters would either vote for someone else, not vote at all in the presidential race or can’t say now what they would do, finds pollster Dan Jones & Associates.
In short, a third of Idaho Republicans are in a quandary over a Trump presidential ballot.
Jones also finds that 60 percent of Idahoans believe the GOP nomination will be decided by Republican delegates at the national convention this July in Cleveland and that Trump or anyone else will not wrap up the nomination beforehand.
Most Idahoans and most Idaho Republicans think if Trump is denied the GOP nomination he will start a third party candidacy – which would hand the presidency Hillary Clinton, the presumed Democratic nominee.
Also, by far most Idahoans believe the rhetoric in the 2016 presidential race has been more negative than past campaigns.
Remember, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz won the GOP March 8 Idaho primary with 45.4 percent of the vote, getting 20 national delegates.
Trump trailed second with 28.1 percent of the vote, getting 12 delegates.
But Trump has been winning many state primaries since, crushing in New York several weeks ago and taking all five northeastern states primaries last Tuesday, giving Trump an insurmountable delegate lead.
Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich can’t win enough delegates to take the GOP convention in the first round of convention balloting.
And even if Trump doesn’t reach the majority 1,237-delegate number before the convention, many GOP leaders now believe Trump will ultimately get the nomination.
But a Trump/Clinton final election still leaves many Idaho voters unsatisfied, Jones finds.
If such a match-up were to come, Idahoans feel:
- 42 percent would vote for Trump.
- 25 percent would vote for the Democratic nominee.
- 18 percent would vote for someone else.
- 9 percent would not vote at all in the presidential race.
- And 7 percent don’t know.
Among Idaho Republicans:
- 66 percent would vote for Trump.
- 4 percent would vote for the Democrat.
- 16 percent would vote for someone else.
- 7 percent wouldn’t vote for president at all.
- And 6 percent don’t know what they would do.
If for some reason the national GOP delegates don’t give Trump the nomination, most Idahoans think he would jump ship and run a third-party or independent campaign – even though no third-party or independent candidate has won the top office.
- 54 percent of Idahoans say Trump would run as a third-party candidate.
- 32 percent say he wouldn’t and 13 percent don’t know.
- 52 percent of Republicans think Trump would leave their party and run a third-party campaign.
- 35 percent of Republicans think he wouldn’t.
- And 13 percent don’t know.
About sixty percent of Democrats and political independents think he’d leave the GOP.
Finally, 74 percent of Idahoans think the campaign rhetoric has been more negative than previous presidential races.
Sixty-nine percent of Republicans feel it’s been more negative, 80 percent of Democrats say so, and 75 percent of political independents say it’s been more negative.
Jones polled 603 adults from April 8-19. The poll’s margin of error is 3.99 percent.