The GOP race to replace U.S. Rep. Raul Labrador in Idaho’s 1stCongressional District is wide open, a new Idaho Politics Weekly poll finds.
And in his 2nd District, Rep. Mike Simpson is in fairly good shape for re-election next year.
IPW pollster Dan Jones & Associates finds in a new survey that the current three-way race to replace Labrador – who is giving up his seat to run for governor in 2018 – has no clear leader.
Here are the statewide and 1st District results:
Former state Sen. Russ Fulcher is favored by 9 percent statewide and 9 percent just inside of the 1st District.
Former Lt. Gov. David Leroy has 16 percent statewide and 17 percent in the district.
State Rep. Luke Malek see 8 percent support statewide and 7 percent in the district.
9 percent of statewide voters mentioned someone else, and 10 percent did so in the district.
The real winner now is “don’t know.”
That’s a 57 percent majority both statewide and inside the district.
Jones compared the GOP candidates statewide to see their overall strength.
But only Republicans inside the 1st District can vote on the men – with the polling showing no great differences between the two samples.
Simpson is seeking re-election next year.
And Jones finds that among his 2nd District constituents:
48 percent said he should be re-elected.
40 percent said he should not.
And 12 percent didn’t know.
Simpson’s statewide strength is a bit less; 45 percent want him back; 34 percent don’t, and 21 percent don’t know.
Jones, who has been polling in the Mountain West for more than 40 years, says incumbents always want to be above 50 percent in such a “naked re-elect” question.
It’s called “naked re-elect” because the incumbent faces no opponent(s) – the question measuring the elected official’s base support.
So, Simpson stands at 48 percent favorable – close to the desired benchmark.
Among Republicans statewide:
15 percent like Fulcher.
17 percent like Leroy.
6 percent favor Malek.
5 percent mentioned someone else.
And 57 percent don’t know.
Again, no clear favorite – the GOP nomination is open at this point.
Almost assuredly, the final election will go to the Republican candidate – Idaho hasn’t elected a Democrat to Congress in a decade.
Jones polled 604 adults statewide from Aug. 23-30. The statewide sample is 4 percent.
Jones polled 308 adults in the 1st District and 296 in the 2nd District. The margins of error are around 8 percent in each of the districts.