As Donald Trump shakes up (and falls) in national GOP politics, the three Republican members of Congress seeking re-election in Idaho this year are safely moving towards victories, a new Idaho Politics Weekly poll shows.
Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, gets 55 percent support in the new survey by Dan Jones & Associates.
Rep. Raul Labrador, R-Idaho, has 51 percent support in his 1st Congressional District.
And Rep. Mike Simpson, R-Idaho, has 53 percent support in his 2nd District.
Crapo was one of the first national Republicans to pull his support from Trump after the now-famous audiotape surfaced with Trump making sexist remarks about women.
And Jones finds that Crapo gets 15 percent support from even Idaho Democrats.
Jones’ numbers in the Senate race:
- Crapo is at 55 percent.
- Democrat Jerry Sturgill has 25 percent support.
- Ray Writz (Constitution Party), has 6 percent.
- Those who said they plan to vote for someone other than these three, 7
percent.
- And 7 percent don’t yet know who they may vote for.
To win a major race in very-Republican Idaho, a Democratic candidate must get the lion’s share of independent voters.
But Sturgill falls well short; Jones finds that 49 percent of independents support Crapo, while only 21 percent like Sturgill.
Labrador still sticks with Trump, although he condemns his sexist talk.
Jones finds for Labrador:
- 51 percent support him.
- 31 percent go with Democrat James Piotrowski.
- 12 percent say they will vote for someone else.
- And 6 percent don’t know.
Labrador belongs to the far right GOP caucus in the U.S. House, and you don’t see Democrats supporting him like they do Crapo.
- In fact, only 5 percent of 1st District Democrats like Labrador.
- But the congressman still gets many of the independents Piotrowski would need for an upset: Labrador has 44 percent to Piotrowski’s 30 percent among independents.
No doubt because of his conservative politics, many women don’t like Labrador – men support him 56 percent to women only 46 percent.
Oddly enough, ages 30 to 39 actually go with Piotrowski, 43-40 percent. But Labrador wins big among other age groups, finds Jones.
Simpson also threw Trump under the bus after the “Access Hollywood” tape became public, saying Trump is “unfit” to be president.
Jones finds in the 2nd District:
- Simpson leads with 53 percent support.
- Democrat Jennifer Martinez has 27 percent.
- Constitution Party’s Anthony Tomkins is at 5 percent support.
- 9 percent said they would vote for someone else.
- And 5 percent didn’t know.
Martinez does not even get more women voters than Simpson, who is certainly more moderate than Labrador.
- 56 percent of women support Simpson compared to 50 percent for men.
Statewide, Jones polled 608 likely voters; that sample has a possible margin of error of plus or minus 3.97 percent.
In the 1st District, Jones polled 331 voters, the margin of error plus or minus 5.39 percent.
And in the 2nd District, Jones polled 277 voters, the margin of error plus or minus 5.89 percent.
