Idaho’s all-Republican congressional delegation up for re-election this year appear safe – they are leading their challengers by healthy double-digit percentages, a new Idaho Politics Weekly poll shows.
IPW is the only group doing regular public opinion polling in Idaho this election year.
And pollster Dan Jones & Associates finds in a new survey that U.S. Sen. Mike Crapo has a 37 percentage point lead, U.S. Rep. Mike Simpson has a 42 point lead, and U.S. Rep. Raul Labrador has an 18 point lead.
In a very red state like Idaho, it’s likely these Republican incumbents will coast to re-election in November.
Jones finds that Crapo and Simpson are quite popular with their constituents.
But Labrador, known for his hard-right politics, is less so – but still has more than enough support to win in two months time.
If the final election were held today, here are some of the numbers:
- Crapo would have 57 percent of the vote statewide.
- Democrat Jerry Sturgill comes in with only 20 percent support.
- Constitution Party’s Ray Writz has 4 percent support.
- 4 percent would vote for someone else in the U.S. Senate race.
- And 15 percent don’t know who they support now.
In the 1st Congressional District:
- Labrador has 51 percent support.
- Democrat James Piotrowski is at 33 percent support.
- And 16 percent don’t know who they would vote for.
In the 2nd District:
- Simpson leads all of his congressional colleagues with an impressive 65 percent of the vote.
- Democrat Jennifer Martinez has 23 percent support.
- Constitution Party’s Anthony Tomkins has 12 percent.
- And 0 percent don’t know who they support.
There is also an election for the non-partisan Idaho Supreme Court.
And without the benefit of having an “R” or a “D” next to their names, Idahoans don’t have much guidance on who to vote for here.
Robyn Brody has 18 percent support, finds Jones.
Curt McKenzie has 21 percent support.
And a large 61 percent don’t know who they will vote for.
McKenzie is a sitting GOP state senator, and some eyebrows were raised when a group of Republican Senate colleagues publically supported him – the idea being that partisanship should not be a part of the high court race.
Jones finds that so far it has little effect, McKenzie and Brody aren’t that far apart in their GOP supporters.
There is also no real gender bias, Jones finds.
Sixteen percent of men like Brody, 19 percent of women favor her.
While 23 percent of men prefer McKenzie, 19 percent of women do.
Sixty-one percent of men are still undecided, 62 percent of women are.
Jones polled 602 likely voters statewide from Aug. 18-31. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
In the 1st District, Jones polled 335 voters, the margin of error being 5.44 percent.
In the 2nd District, he polled 280 voters, the margin of error plus or minus 6.02 percent.
