Idaho’s three Republican federal incumbents up for election this year – Sen. Mike Crapo, Rep. Raul Labrador, and Rep. Mike Simpson – are ahead in their respective races, a new Idaho Politics Weekly poll shows.
But only Crapo gets over 50 percent, as Labrador and Simpson are in the 40th percentile among all their district voters, finds the new survey by Dan Jones & Associates.
The candidate fields will be winnowed down in a May 17 primary.
Crapo, Labrador, and Simpson should all be safe, eventually.
If they have a GOP challenger (Crapo does not), they are well ahead of them among party members, the new poll shows.
And Idaho is a very Republican state, no Democrat winning a U.S. Senate seat or U.S. House seat for years.
Crapo has been in the Senate 16 years and seeks his fourth term.
Crapo is being challenged in the final election by Democrat Jerry Sturgill. You can read about him here.
Jones finds that if the election were held today, Crapo would get 53 percent support and Sturgill 17 percent.
There are two Constitution Party candidates for the seat, Pro-Life, with 5 percent, and Ray J. Writz, also at 5 percent support.
A large 20 percent of the electorate are still undecided in the U.S. Senate race.
Pro-Life is the man’s actual legal name; you can read about him here. He takes pride in running for a major office every two years.
Jones polled across the state for the U.S. Senate race, since all Idahoans vote there.
Jones polled only in the U.S. House reps districts for these results:
First District:
Labrador is being challenged by two fellow Republicans and three Democrats.
-- Labrador gets 41 percent support among all district voters, and 60 percent support from Republicans, who will be voting in the primary.
-- Republican Gordon Counsil has 4 percent support from all voters, and 4 percent among Republicans.
-- Republican Isaac Haugen also has 4 percent among all voters and 4 percent among Republicans.
-- Democrat Shizandra Fox has 7 percent support among all district voters, and 20 percent among Democrats.
-- Democrat James Piotrowski and Staniela Nikolova each have 2 percent support among all voters. Piotrowski has 9 percent support among Democrats to Nikolova’s 7 percent support among Democrats.
-- A large 40 percent say they are undecided in the race, showing the Democratic candidates are unknown, and there is some dissatisfaction with Labrador.
Second District:
Simpson also has a GOP challenger in his 2nd District, Lisa Marie. But the Democrats have only one candidate, Jennifer Martinez.
-- Simpson has 47 percent support among all voters, with 66 percent support among Republicans.
-- GOP challenger Marie has 10 percent support, with 16 percent of Republicans liking her.
Clearly then, Simpson looks good for the GOP primary just a week away.
-- Democrat Martinez has 15 percent support among all district voters.
-- Constitution Party member Anthony Tomkins has 9 percent support in the district.
-- 20 percent of the voters say they are undecided at this point in the race.
Jones polled 603 adults from April 8-19. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.99 percent.
Labrador is a conservative who says he went to Congress to change how things were being done in America.
A controversial figure at times, it is no wonder two different Republicans and three different Democrats are running against him this year.
But with 60 percent support among Republicans in his district, he seems safe in the primary.
Simpson is more moderate than Labrador – but that’s not saying much on the national scale.
